Okay, so most of you probably know that I don’t write a lot of editorials because I suck at them, but I still want to say a few words about this subject. After Howling-Kun mentioned the DVD-sales of certain shows in the shoutbox, I started looking at some of the other data in this topic. Now, this is not going to be a rant on how most of my favourite shows aren’t getting any DVD-sales. Everyone’s of course entitled to what he wants to buy (although it does get harder and harder to associate myself with this fandom when shows like Training with Hinako top the charts…).
Instead, those rankings reminded me of all the fuzz that’s going on, and how many people seem to be claiming that “anime is dying”. With this many times that the same doom-scenarios popped up, I almost started believing this myself, until I saw the actual facts in the following graph of DVD-sales in the topic mentioned above.
Well, I may not be an economist or anything near it, but here is my interpretation of the graph. First of all, I don’t get any of those arguments about how anime is supposed to be dying. Sure, sales have gone down compared to 2005, but that’s just a very selective analysis: compare it to ten years ago, and you can see a huge increase in sales. The decline in sales of the past years is about the equivalent of a kick in the groin: sure, you’re going to be walking funny for the next couple of hours, but “dying” is a big overstatement.
The thing is, that the year with the biggest sales was 2005. Interestingly enough, the response in 2006 to this was a huge increase in the amount of different anime titles that was released, as everyone seemed to be profiting from this boom in the sales of the industry. Unfortunately though: just like in the stock market, when sales suddenly go up, this isn’t going to continue forever. Right now, the anime industry is trying to find a new balance amidst the significantly increased interest in anime for the past ten years, and until it has found this the market is going to wobble around like a drunk student on his way home.
And as for the relatively low sales figures of 2008: did you seriously expect anything different with the current economic crisis? The recession has also hit Japan very hard, so it’s of course to be expected that last year’s sales would decrease. What I actually haven’t seen yet is people who are looking at the future. Sure, reports like this are nice and all, but they seem to assume that this recession is going to take forever.
With a bit of luck, the economic crisis is going to be mostly over in 2011 which is going to allow the industries to recover. So what’s going to happen with anime when that point arrives? When that point arrives, people are going to have more and more money to spend on anime, so there actually is a chance for a very solid recovery in the not-so-distant future. Who knows?
And really, as long as producers are able to churn out well-produced series of which they know are never going to sell well, I’m not buying those “anime is dying”-arguments anymore. As long as there are Genji Monogataris, Himitsus, Porfys and Kaibas, it shows that the animation companies aren’t at the real edge of destruction.
I saw an article on ANN about that guy that forum topic was talking about. Instead of going FANSUBS KILL, HUNT DOWN THE FANS like a lot of people tend to, the guy they’re quoting mostly said to respond with ‘quality over quantity,’ fewer, better shows, and especially less of the lame kind that people are getting the impression are only made because the industry thinks anything with bishoujo or mech elements will sell. He also said some other useful stuff I can’t recall, I think some stuff about increasing legal, worldwide access, and was generally awesome. So with this guy around, I’m confident we’ll be fine.
Seems like natsume yuujinchou’s sales are good. Are we gonna expect a season 3? hehehe.
You also have to count in merchandise sales, since this also boost income. It would be interesting to if there has been an increase or decrease in merchandise sales over the past couple of years.
I agree I am not sure why people are surprised that DVD sales are down in this economy. It’s a luxury item so clearly sales are going to hurt.
As for the bubble bursting well with the amount of anime that is produced each year that is no surprise either. There is just so much that no one can watch everything and you definitely can’t buy everything.
Who knows something good might come out of this maybe we will start getting more quality over quantity.
Well pretty much what did they expect its not like the anime companies have a captive market, much like the oil companies, so its not as if they could continue to increase sales. Moreover, its a luxury good so it may just so happen the increase of prices of goods due to inflation have decreased sales. But in the end honestly any no economist worth their grain of salt would give a stark statement of “Anime is Dying” based on a graph or just sales figure. Things like that doesn’t show things like consumer behavior and other market factors, basically it depends on a lot of other factors that do need to be considered like for instance pay-streaming or pay-downloads of anime’s may have competed with DVD sales as a substitute or the introduction of Blu-Ray technology may have affected consumer behavior (such as myself when I buy DVD’s nowadays).
What the . . .
Even if I don’t read those reports, surveys, rankings, whatsoever . . .
I think it’s common sense that anime ain’t dying considering that there are more coming soon and anime fans are still worldwide, not just in Japan. Why should they worry when cartoons of third-world countries can’t even be that appreciated by its own people . . . much more on other countries. *sigh*
but anywayz, hopefully this kind of issue won’t discourage anime companies (and I don’t think t actually is).
THANK YOU
I’ve been wanting to say something like this about the “anime crisis”. My biggest complaint (this also applies to politics, economy, etc) is that people keep forgetting to look at “the big picture” and keep asking for instant gratification. As long as this happens, we’ll always have this cycle of highs and lows.
(Of course I’m no different -__-;;)
I think you should take into account you enjoy a very particular kind of anime, psgels.
I for one enjoy all kinds of shows, and always have stuff to watch.
Anime is still far away from dying. However, it’s obvious it is taking new directions.
It is to be expected that shows in the same vein as those that sell a lot spawn more.
Moe shows and Sunrise trainwrecks for example, while being mindless fun, are still very entertaining (and guess what: most of them are improving!), and we still get a lot of shows with “depth”.
Either way, I’m satisfied with recent seasons’ anime line-up. Pretty mixed.
The real shame is: shows that don’t sell [usually] don’t get new seasons.
I’m stunned Birdy even got a S2 with the first being such a commercial failure.
My only fear is that shows like KYASSHAN, which are truly excellent and that don’t need/can’t have a second season, don’t spawn more often.
Anyway, Natsume looks like an exception to the general rule and I still haven’t watched it.
My take is the same as yours. Far more anime are being produced now than in 2005, and only a tick down from the 2006 high. And sales are good, in the big picture. Fansubbing both grows and shrinks sales. If it hadn’t been for fansubs, I would never have gotten into anime enough to buy them.
But the anime industry could be like the US auto industry: producing more and more gas-guzzling ecchi shows and mecha shows that sell to the same public over and over again, and not developing really good new product that expands the market. Understandable but dangerous.
One happy side effect I hope this recession will have, is the death of 4Kids and all other companies that produce the horrible dubs on American TV. I wish they would stop licensing anime already. They make the worst English subs/dubs, much worse than fansubs, and they expect people to buy the crap they’re producing.
With regards to fansubs and anime sales that would be an interesting economic study to find out their relation. Companies are just blowing off steam and blaming fansubs since undoubtedly it does make them “lose” sales, though the question is whether they would’ve had those sales in the first place and whether it does help in marketing. In any case a study does need to be made just that nobody has undertaken it yet, gathering data for that will definitely be a bitch XD.
I think we all know how horrendously expensive the Blurays/DVDs of anime are in Japan already. Add that with the recession and viola.
Also, I don’t really believe in the silly ‘culling of crappy shows or practics’ BS. Get that silly proselytizing crap out of it.
He, nowadays I hear a lot something like I’d do that or buy that but there’s just not money for it. All economic sectors are being hit by the lack of sales. And I think people won’t buy immediately the dvd’s they want. Instead they’ll wait to have enough saved or wait for offers. Patience.